UC Irvine -

This research article’s purpose is to see the impact of Prop 47 has on crime rates in California. Bartos and Kubrin answer this question by creating a “synthetic control group design” -- a Synthetic California. Synthetic California examines crime rates in 2015 (the year after Prop 47 was enacted) if Prop 47 was never implemented. The findings indicate that there is no effect of Prop 47 on homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, or burglary; but there is an increase in larceny and motor vehicle crimes. Because the sample is so small, the results are inconclusive. Bradley Bartos is a PhD candidate at UC Irvine and uses projection models for criminal justice models. Charis Kubrin is a Professor of Criminology, Law and Society and Sociology at UC Irvine, focusing on trends in crime. Bartos and Kubrin acknowledge that this is the first systematic analysis of the effects of Prop 47, and that it is premature to conclude the long term effects of Prop 47.

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^{Keywords: Criminal justice reform, crime, prison downsizing, decarceration, California, Prop 47, UC Irvine, crime rates, 2018, 2015, 2014, Prop 47 impacts, synthetic control group design, statewide}